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Green Earthquake and Tsunami Alert in Papua New Guinea

Summary

On 5/15/2011 6:37:14 PM UTC an earthquake of magnitude 6.6 and depth 70km has struck an unpopulated area in the Northern Solomons Province (population: 0.1 million) in Papua New Guinea. GDACS estimates the likelihood for need of international humanitarian intervention to be low (Green alert).

It is likely that a tsunami was generated. The maximum tsunami wave height near the coast of Sipai will be 0.02m. Please refer to the GDACS tsunami report for more details.

This earthquake can have a low humanitarian impact since the affected region is unpopulated and has medium resilience for natural disasters.

The nearest populated places are [None]. It is a mountainous region with a maximum altitude of 2605 m.

Humanitarian Impact impact 
Population resilience vul 
Tsunami probability tsunami 
Landslide probability slope 
Nuclear radiation probability radiation 

Caution: this information is based on risk models. Whether international humanitarian aid is needed must be decided by an expert.

This report was automatically updated by a computer on: 5/15/2011 6:54:44 PM UTC (17 minutes after the event)

Explanation of alert calculation: Show

Tsunami wave height

tsunamimap
Google map Population map
poplegendPopulation Density near epicenter (people/km2). Image area: 6x4 decimal degrees (approx. 650x450km2).
population map

Earthquake epicentre: best estimate eq_logo    previous estimates: eq_icon

Earthquake Event

Geological map
geological map

Characteristics for this report

Information source Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre, US (PTWC)
Link to source event report (pt11135001)
Magnitude 6.6 M
Depth 70 km
Location

Geographic coordinates (latitude/longitude): -6.102, 154.444
Papua New Guinea , Northern Solomons Province (population: 130000).
Seismic region: Bougainville Region.

The earthquake happened in Papua New Guinea , Northern Solomons Province (population: 130000). . The nearest populated places are [None].

It is a mountainous region with a maximum altitude of 2605 m.

Time time 5/15/2011 6:37:14 PM (UTC, Universal Standard Time)
5/16/2011 4:55:01 AM (Estimated local solar time)
Sun, 5/15/2011 19:37 CET (Brussels, Paris, Rome)
Sun, 5/15/2011 13:37 EST (New York, Washington)
Sun, 5/15/2011 10:37 PST (San Francisco, Los Angeles)
Mon, 5/16/2011 02:37 AWST (Australian Western Standard Time)

Previous reports for this earthquake.

Earthquake reportTsunami reportEvent Date/TimeLat/LonMagnitudeDepth (km)SourcePublication Date/TimeDelay
1086692448 (Max. wave at coast: 0m) Max. wave at coast: 0.02m5/15/2011 6:37:14 PM UTC-6.102, 154.4446.670PTWC (pt11135001)5/15/2011 6:54:44 PM UTC17min
1086705/15/2011 6:37:10 PM UTC-6.1575, 154.44596.543.2NEIC (usc0003fvs)5/15/2011 6:56:45 PM UTC19min

Earthquake Impact Details

Potentially affected People

The population in the area of this earthquake if 0 people/km?. (Data source).

The earthquake occurred at 4h local time. At this time a day, more people are at home and therefore more vulnerable to collapsing residential buildings. During traffic hours, people can be affected by collapsing bridges and other road infrastructure.

Population Data
Radius (km) Population Density (people/km?)
1
2
5
10
20
50 1989 
100 51050 
200 159818 

Damage

The affected region has low level of urban area (0%) and a low level of cultivated area (0.5%). In urban areas more damage can be expected than in cultivated or natural areas. (Data source)

Radius (km)urban areascultivated areasother
200 0% 0.56% 99.43%
100 0% 1.48% 98.51%
50 0% 0.26% 99.73%
10 0% 0% 1000%

Resilience and Vulnerability

Resilience is the capacity of the population to cope with a hazard. Since much of investments in earthquake preparedness and available funds for quick response is related to household income, the GDP per capita can be used as a rough indicator of resilience.

Papua New Guinea has a GDP per capita of 1007 PPP$ (Parity Purchasing Power Dollar, about 1 Euro) and is therefore part of the medium level income countries. Therefore, the earthquake happened in an area of medium resilience.

Based on the combination of 9 indicators, ECHO attributes Papua New Guinea a medium vulnerability.

ECHO Intervention Priority Ranking for Papua New Guinea
vulnerabilitylevel
Overall situation
Human Development hdi
Human Poverty hpi
Exposure to Major Disasters
Natural Disasters natdis
Conflicts conflicts
Humanitarian effects of population movement
Refugees and IDPs refugees
Health of children under five
Undernourishment food
Mortality rates under5
Other vulnerability factors
Access to health care phis
Prevalence of HIV, TBC and malaria htm
Gender-specific Human Development gdi
Gini Index gini
Source ECHO
Key: bad Bad - medium Medium - good Good - nodata No data

Exposure

Both conditions for survival and conditions for delivering aid strongly depend on the current weather and temperature. The following graphs show the current and forecast weather.

Current weather conditions and forecasts at earthquake location (lat: -6.102 - long: 154.444) (Data source).

Temperature chart currently not available. Try to refresh page.
Precipitation chart currently not available. Try to refresh page.
Cloud cover chart currently not available. Try to refresh page.

More detailed observations at closest weather station (Buka): WeatherByWeb - NOAA

Probability of Secondary effects

slopelevel Landslides: The maximum slope in the area of the earthquake is 38.313% and the maximum altitude is 2605 m. Since this is a medium slope, the risk of earthquake induced landslides is medium. Note, however, that the slope data is not reliable on a local scale, while landslides depend very much on local topography, soil and meteorological conditions. More...

tsunamilevel Tsunami: the JRC tsunami wave propagation models indicated a unknown likelihood for a destructive tsunami. However, this probability must be confirmed by oceanographic measurements or observations. See full report.

Critical infrastructure

The following critical infrastructure is nearby and could be affected by the earthquake:

The distance to nuclear installations is evaluated based on a 1999 UN dataset containing the location of nuclear plants in the world. If plants are near and the earthquake magnitude is above 6.5, the alert is set to orange. Note that the location of plants is approximate with errors of up to 100km.

Getting there and away

The nearest civilian airport (Buka) is at 81km from the epicenter. Other airports are: Mono (190km), Ballalae (186km), Buin (153km), Oria (146km), Lehu (142km), Arawa (107km), Tonu (129km), Aropa (142km), Karato (101km), Boku (86km), Torokina (98km), Kurwina (98km), Manetai (99km), Wakunai (91km), Inus (86km), Sabah (89km), Dios (85km), Buka (81km), Karoola (95km), Green Islands (183km)

Ports nearby are: Blanche Harbour (190km), Shortland Harbor (192km), Shortland Harbour (188km), Kieta (130km), Keita (135km), Anewa Bay (121km), Buka (80km), Queen Carola Harbor (107km), Nissan Island (173km)

Disclaimer

While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information. The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.

 

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